May 5, 2024

Best Batter Monday

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Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers posted the best game score of Sunday, an 87, as he goes four for four with two home runs in an 5-1 win over the Braves. That move him to within a few tenths of a point of Juan Soto of the Yankees. Soto remains in first place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Soto went one for four with a double and three RBI in the 5-2 win over the Tigers.

Ohtani’s teammate, Mookie Betts, drew a walk in four trips to remain in third place. Steven Kwan did not play for the Guardians as a hamstring injury lands him on the illjured list. Alec Bohm extended his hit streak to 18 games with a double in four trips to the plate in a 5-4 win over the Giants.

May 5, 2024

May 5, 2024

Pirates Order

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The Pirates beat the Rockies 5-3 Sunday afternoon. In first looking at the Pittsburgh batting order, the lack of power stood out to me. On second glance, however, the management does a good job by simply order the batters by decreasing OBP one through eight, then putting a decent OBP in the ninth slot to give Connor Joe and Bryan Reynolds someone to drive in. This worked today as Joe and Reynolds reached base three times and scored twice, while the heart of the order generated three extra base hits and four RBI.

The Pirates offense isn’t very good, but the batting order at least allows them to make the most out of their best hitters.

May 5, 2024

Games of the Day

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The Tigers send Tarik Skubal against the Yankees and Nestor Cortes. Skubal’s ERA of 1.72 comes from dropping his ERA about a run every year since his rookie season of 2020. Over time, he lowered both his walk and home run rates. This season, his FIPs are about the same as last year, but in 2023 his ERA was higher, this year it’s lower as things balance out. Cortes reduced his walk rate in 2024 to 1.5 per 9 IP, about a walk per nine lower than his career average.

The Twins go for their thirteenth win a row as they host the Red Sox. Cooper Criswell faces Joe Ryan. Criswell brings a 1.63 ERA into his fifth appearance of the season. With low strikeout and K rates, batters put the ball in play against him, but so far those balls in play led to a low .250 BABIP. Batters failed to get a high launch angle against Ryan this season, which led to a lower rate of home runs allowed. He deemphasized his four seam fastball this year to throw more changeups.

Finally, Freddy Peralta leads the Brewer against the Cubs and Javier Assad. Peralta is working on his best combination of three-true outcomes of his career. That reflected in his xFIP of 2.95, which would be the lowest season mark for his career. Assad owns a 1.97 ERA after six starts. He held batters to a .205/.264/.277 slash line, which goes down to .105/.130/.105 with men in scoring position.

Enjoy!

May 5, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

Arraez went four for six with a double in his Padres debut as they spanked the Diamondbacks 13-1. Bohm extended his hit streak to seventeen games, and got out early in the Phillies blowout of the Giants.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of a hit:

  • 0.329, 0.758 — Luis Arraez batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.312, 0.714 — Alec Bohm batting against Logan Webb.
  • 0.303, 0.691 — Julio Rodriguez batting against Hunter Brown.
  • 0.293, 0.690 — Luis Rengifo batting against Carlos Carrasco.
  • 0.247, 0.689 — Jose Altuve batting against Bryce Miller.
  • 0.271, 0.687 — Mookie Betts batting against Max Fried.
  • 0.268, 0.682 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Max Fried.
  • 0.256, 0.681 — Freddie Freeman batting against Max Fried.
  • 0.253, 0.681 — Harold Ramirez batting against Luis Severino.
  • 0.256, 0.676 — Amed Rosario batting against Luis Severino.

Note that I removed Steven Kwan from the lists as he is undergoing a medical scan today on his injured hamstring.

The two systems agree on the top three today, making Arraez and Bohm the unanimous double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 5, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Saturday produced minor changes to the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts of the Dodgers flipped the second and third slots. Ohtani went three for five with a home run to move into second place, while Betts posted a one for four with a walk to drop to third. The Dodgers destroyed the Braves 11-2 on blowout Saturday five games were decided by eight runs or more. That’s the most on a day this season, and the most on a day this decade (2021 on).

In addition, their teammate Max Muncy maxed the game score for the year. He knockd out four hits in five at bats, three of them home runs for a game score of 93. That’s the fifth 90 of the season and the highest of 2024. Fifteen of Muncy’s 28 hits went for extra bases this season, helping him to a .551 slugging percentage.

Juan Soto of the Yankees remains on top of the leaderboard after a one for four in a 5-3 win over the Tigers. Alec Bohm of the Phillies went one for two with a hit by pitch in a 14-3 win over the Giants, one of four games decided by ten runs. Bohm extended his hit streak to 17 games. Steven Kwan of the Guardians drew a walk in a 7-1 win over the Angels, but left the game early with an injury.

May 5, 2024

May 4, 2024

May 4, 2024

May 4, 2024

Jones for Pitching

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Jared Jones continued his excellent rookie season for the Pirates by allowing just one hit over seven inning in the 1-0 Pittsburgh win over the Rockies. The Pirates did not score until the bottom of the ninth, so Jones did not get the win. He walked none and struck out 10, and the bullpen followed up with two perfect innings as the Rockies only sent 28 men to the plate.

Jones lowered his ERA to 2.63. He pitched 41 innings in his seven starts with 27 hits allowed, 52 strikeouts, and just five walks. If he can keep this up, not only will he be a strong Rookie of the Year candidate, but could by looking at a Cy Young Award as well.

Jones walked batters at a higher rate in the minors, while his strikeout rate was about the same. If someone on the Pirates MLB staff, helped with the walk issue, that coach should get a nice bonus.

May 4, 2024

Games of the Day

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Kenton Winn faced undefeated Ranger Suarez as the Giants play the Phillies. Winn is up to 76 1/3 MLB innings. He kept batters off base, allowing just a .281 OBP. Note that with six doubles plays induced and base stealer going five for five with one pickoff, his effective OBP is somewhat lower. Suarez comes in 5-0 with a 1.32 ERA. He is able to go deep in games as he averages 13.6 pitches per inning.

Logan Gilbert and Framber Valdez battle in Houston as the Mariners try to drive the Astros deeper into a hole. Gilbert owns a winning history against Houston, 4-2 with a 3.63 ERA in nine starts. Valdez is even better against Seattle, 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA in twelve appearances.

The Braves and Dodgers continue their series with Bryce Elder and Tyler Glasnow on the mound. Elder limits hits despite a low strikeout rate, and has not allowed a home run in his first 12 innings this season. Glasnow struck out 53 batters in 43 innings this season, leading to just 28 hits allowed.

Enjoy!

May 4, 2024

Pudge Perez

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Sam McDowell at the Kansas City Star sings the praises of Royals catcher Salvador Perez:

Five months ago, he sent a succinct text message, just six words as the recipient recalled, but that was enough to make Royals general manager J.J. Picollo wince. I need to talk to you. The message came in mid-December, as the Royals were in the midst of implementing their offseason blueprint. But upon its arrival, Picollo picked up the phone and called Perez almost immediately. “You don’t really know where this is going,” Picollo said. Turns out: “I just wanted to tell him how excited I was about everything we were doing,” Perez said. “(Majority owner) Mr. (John) Sherman, he was spending a lot of money. I think the best way to repay him is to win some games and make the playoffs. So, yeah, it gave me a lot of energy.” That’s the backdrop for the best March and April combination in the career of an eight-time All-Star catcher who will turn 34 in a week.

KansasCity.com

Perez played a lot of games in his career. In recent seasons, especially, he plays on his days off from behind the plate as a designated hitter. To catch that much and put up what may turn out to be the best season of his career is rather amazing.

A comparison to Carlton Fisk comes to mind. Fisk kept posting high WAR seasons into his late 30s. The difference between Fisk and Perez comes from the arcs of their careers. Fisk started strong and stayed strong. Perez posted a great year in 2013 at age 23, but doesn’t really become great again until age 30. Through age 29 his slash line came in at .266/.297/.442. He hit for power with poor plate discipline. Since then, he hit .273/.312/.501.

Better plate discipline helped, and this season his improvement is off the charts. He doubled his walk rate versus his career average, and greatly reduced his strikeout rate. This really made we wonder if Perez did something to improve his vision (glasses, contacts). It turns out he did have an eye procedure last season. It may be he’s seeing the ball better and just crushing it.

May 4, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

Littell limits walks, not hits. Even upping his K rate this season, the hits keep coming with 40 allowed in 33 innings. Marte also doesn’t walk much but picks up hits with his high BABIP, so I can see why he comes out on top.

The NN finds these players with a high probability of a hit:

  • 0.253, 0.695 — Jose Altuve batting against Logan Gilbert.
  • 0.282, 0.693 — Mookie Betts batting against Bryce Elder.
  • 0.280, 0.693 — Steven Kwan batting against Reid Detmers.
  • 0.275, 0.691 — William Contreras batting against Jameson Taillon.
  • 0.258, 0.684 — Trea Turner batting against Keaton Winn.
  • 0.260, 0.684 — Harold Ramirez batting against Christian Scott.
  • 0.279, 0.681 — Luis Garcia batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.273, 0.680 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Bryce Elder.
  • 0.254, 0.679 — Alec Bohm batting against Keaton Winn.
  • 0.260, 0.679 — Freddie Freeman batting against Bryce Elder.
  • 0.293, 0.679 — Starling Marte batting against Zack Littell.

Luis Arraez actually topped both lists, but with his trade still up in the air, it’s not clear he’ll be playing today. It’s a very different list today, as Marte make it by tying with Freeman for tenth. It’s the good hitters versus the good matchup. Betts and Kwan are the consensus double down choices on a very low probability day. Maybe the fourth will be with Bader.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 4, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Steven Kwan of the Guardians moves back into the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He produced most of the Cleveland offense Friday night, going two for three with a walk, but he did ground into a double play. He now leads the AL in batting average at .356, topping the boards in runs and hits as well. He sits in fourth place after the 6-0 Angels win.

Juan Soto of the Yankees remains in first place. He took a rare 0 for 4 as in a game without much offense. The Yankees beat the Tigers 2-1 on two runs in the bottom of the ninth inning.

Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers remain two and three respectively. Betts went 0 for 5 in the 4-3 win over the Braves, while Ohtani posted a one for three game with two walks.

Alec Bohm of the Phillies extended his hit streak to sixteen games with a one for four and sits in fifth place. Philadelphia beat San Francisco 4-3.

Brett Baty of the Mets lived up to his name on Friday, posting the best game score of the day, an 80. His three for four with two home runs was not enough, however, as the Rays take the slugfest 10-8. Baty cut his strikeout rate way down this season, which so far led to more hits and a higher OBP. The two homers might be a sign that his power is starting to come around.

May 4, 2024

May 3, 2024

Suk, Head for Arraez

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The Padres and Marlins appear ready to consummate a big deal for Luis Arraez:

ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported Friday that the Miami Marlins are expected to trade Arráez to the San Diego Padres in exchange for three prospects and a relief pitcher. According to Marlins insider Craig Mish, San Diego will send outfield prospects Dillon Head and Jakob Marsee, first baseman Nathan Martorella and relief pitcher Woo-Suk Go to Miami in the deal.

SI.com

With Xander Bogaerts mired in a terrible season, it would seem that Arraez would slide in as the replacement, although he would be good as DH if Manny Machado moves back to the field permanently. The Marlins give up 2024 early and start rebuilding.

Head is just 19 years old at High A ball. Marsee and Martorellaares an on-base machines. Go is a high K, high walk pitcher from Japan who as doing just okay in the minors.

May 3, 2024

May 3, 2024

Games of the Day

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The Giants move to Philadelphia as Jordan Hicks faces Aaron Nola. Hicks saw his K rate drop this season, but so did his walk and home run rates. Despite the drop in Ks, he’s still doing a great job preventing hits. The Phillies starters are so good that Nola’s 3.20 ERA is only fourth best in the group.

Reese Olson of the Tigers takes on Marcus Stroman of the Yankees, the two teams tied in the loss column at 13. The teams are currently ranked one and three in the wild card race, the Yankees with two more wins. Olson stands as one of three pitchers with at least 20 IP with zero home runs allowed. Stroman’s walk rate of 4.26 per 9 IP would be the highest in a season for his career. His ERA is still good due to a .156 BA allowed with runners in scoring position.

The best pitching match-up of the day takes place in Arizona where Dylan Cease of the Padres battles Slade Cecconi. Cease allowed just 17 hits in 35 2/3 innings, thanks in part to 40 strikeouts. Cecconi allowed five hits in 12 innings over his first two starts, striking out 11. With all the whiffs, they may not need to air condition the ballpark tonight!

Enjoy!

May 3, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

Corbin presents the Blue Jays with an opportunity for lots of hits. Note that Clement and Schneider tend to be bench players, so they likely won’t start.

The NN produces these high probability of hit picks:

Altuve and Arraez rise above the Corbin cohort. Altuve does come out as the consensus top pick with Turner and Bichette tied for the consensus double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 3, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Juan Soto of the Yankees remains in first place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings on a day without much action. Soto collected two hits, including his first triple of the season in a 7-2 Orioles win. Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers, Alec Bohm of the Phillies, and William Contreras of the Brewers did not play on Thursday and rank two through five respectively.

Two Astros batters tie for best game score of the day at 66. Jeremy Pena went two for three with a triple and a hit by pitch, while Jonathan Singleton collected a single, home run and a sacrifice fly. Pena is hitting .333/.375/.467 as a shortstop. Combined with Jose Altuve, the Astros middle infield produces an impressive amount of offense. Singleton, after a career shortened by drug abuse, is finally producing at a level that makes him a useful player.

May 3, 2024

May 2, 2024

Game Times Down

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Game times are down a minute compared to April of last season. I’m not sure the two fewer seconds with men on base made the difference:

The major league batting average of .239 is down from .249 through the first month last season following the implementation of limits on defensive shifts. The average finished at .248 last year.

Chron.com

As followers of this blog are aware, all aspects of offense are down, and lower scoring games tend to go a bit faster.

May 2, 2024

Games of the Day

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The Yankees and Orioles finish their four game series in Baltimore, with the Yankees trying come away with a 2-2 split. Carlos Rodon is set to face Kyle Bradish of the Orioles, although the Orioles starter was not officially announced. Rodon returned to being a tough pitcher as far as home runs are concerned, but his high walk rate and lower K rate indicate his 2.48 ERA is better than expected. Bradish returns from an elbow injury. In 2023, he improved all aspects of his game to lower his ERA two runs from his rookie year.

The Nationals send Mitchell Parker against the Rangers and veteran Nathan Eovaldi. Nationals starters are on a bit of a roll, with a 2.78 ERA in their last thirteen games. The group allowed just three home runs. Parker made two of those starts and allowed one run in eleven innings. Eovaldi walked seventeen batters in 36 innings this season, a rate that is very high given his career rate of 2.63 BB per 9 IP. It hasn’t hurt him that much so far, but might if it were to continue much longer.

Enjoy!

May 2, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

The calculation here is hit average, Hits/PA, so .300 here is much more impressive than a .300 BA. Altuve and Kwan vie for best lead-off hitters in the AL this season. Picking a lead-off hitter means more plate appearances in general, which raises the likelihood of a hit.

Note that five of the six games take place this afternoon, so get your picks in early.

The NN produces these batters with a high probability of a hit:

  • 0.301, 0.736 — Luis Arraez batting against Peter Lambert.
  • 0.305, 0.719 — Jose Altuve batting against Logan Allen.
  • 0.301, 0.704 — Steven Kwan batting against Spencer Arrighetti.
  • 0.287, 0.685 — Jeremy Pena batting against Logan Allen.
  • 0.276, 0.677 — Yainer Diaz batting against Logan Allen.
  • 0.271, 0.672 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Logan Allen.
  • 0.273, 0.670 — Nico Hoerner batting against Adrian Houser.
  • 0.275, 0.664 — Connor Wong batting against Kyle Harrison.
  • 0.262, 0.664 — Josh Naylor batting against Spencer Arrighetti.
  • 0.264, 0.661 — Jarren Duran batting against Kyle Harrison.

Arraez and Altuve tie for the consensus top picks. Kwan is up there as well, and hit in seven straight games.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 2, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Steven Kwan of the Guardians missed the cycle by a home run on Wednesday as he slides into fifth place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Kwan went three for five with a double and a triple for a game score of 69 in a 3-2, ten inning win over the Astros. He threw in a great diving catch in the bottom of the tenth that led to a double play and sealed the win for the team. Kwan’s slash line stands at .360/.403/.512 for the season. He already hit three home runs after hitting a total of eleven in his first two years in the majors.

Juan Soto of the Yankees remains at the top of the list. He singled and walked in a 2-0 win over the Orioles, one of five shutouts on the day. Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers contributed to their team’s 8-0 win over the Diamondbacks. Betts went three for five in the game, Ohtani drew a walk. They remain second and third respectively.

Alec Bohm of the Phillies rounds out the top five in fourth place. He posted a one for four to extend his hit streak to fifteen games.

The best game score of the day came off the bat of Willy Adames of the Brewers. He collect two hits in four trips to the plate, both home runs, for a score of 73. That helped the Brewers beat the Rays 7-1. Adames is slugging .564 against his former team.

May 2, 2024

May 1, 2024

Ten for the Twins

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The Twins beat the White Sox 10-5 on Wednesday afternoon to extend their winning streak to ten games. They are now 17-13 on the season. Willi Castro was a home run short of the cycle.

It may be one of the least impressive ten-game win streaks of all time. Seven of the wins came against the White Sox, now 6-25 on the season. The other three against the Angels, 11-20 on the season.

The next few series will test if Minnesota turned the corner. They start off hosting Boston and Seattle, two of the best teams in the AL in preventing runs. Then they face Toronto, the Yankees, and Cleveland. If they come out of that stretch with a winning record, this may turn out to be a good year for the team afterall.

May 1, 2024

Suspensions Galore

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MLB came down hard on the Brewers and Rays for a brawl Tuesday night.

Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta received a five-game suspension for intentionally throwing at Siri during the top of the sixth inning of the Brewers’ 8-2 victory while reliever Abner Uribe received six games after he and Siri squared off against each other two innings later.

Siri received a three-game suspension — that was later reduced to two games — while Murphy will miss two games as a result of Peralta’s actions in addition to his inappropriate conduct toward umpires.

All four were also fined.

MSN.com

The Rays, for a while, seem to get involved in HBP controversy. Since 2007, the year the Rays got good, their batters have been hit 1111 times, fourth most in the majors. They have hit 874 batters, the lowest in the majors.

The Brewers won Wednesday’s game as Willy Adames homered twice,

May 1, 2024

Longer Saves

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Alex Lange picked up a four-out save for the Tigers in their 4-1 win over the Cardinals. That’s the 33rd long save of the season, a long save being one in which the pitcher records four outs or more. The total long saves for the seasons 2021, 2022, and 2023 were 143, 150, and 151 respectively. So far, MLB is on a pace far surpass those seasons.

It turns out in 2019, there were 195 long saves, the most since there were 2013 in bth 2003 and 2024. So long saves were making a comeback before the pandemic hit. We’ll see if 2024 returns to that level.

May 1, 2024

Players of the Month

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Alec Bohm of the Phillies led the majors in both OBP and Batting Average for the month of April. He finished third in slugging percentage behind Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers and Marcell Ozuna of the Braves. Note the main difference in Ohtani’s favor is his seven home runs to Bohm’s four. They both collect twelve doubles, the most in April, and one triple.

Of the top home run hitters in the month, only Ozuna hit on all cylinders. Notice that the narrative about Mike Trout was wrong; he was not having a great season. Trout’s April looks like a Ken Phelps season, not the best hitter in the league.

Bohm and Ozuna tied for the league lead in RBI as well.

Given all that, Alec Bohm wins the Baseball Musings Offensive Player of the Month for April 2024!

On the pitching side, Ranger Suarez of the Phillies makes a very strong case for the honor just looking at the ERA leaderboard. Suarez wound up with a 0.75 ERA for the month, helping him to five wins in five starts with a complete game. He allowed just 18 hits in 36 innings, two home runs, four walks, and a hit batter. Shota Imanaga posted slightly better strikeout and walk rates, but did so in eight fewer innings. Going deep in games is tough with the current pitching strategies. Suarez finished 3 1/3 innings behind the leader in IP for the month, Tanner Houck of the Red Sox. The seven pitchers ahead of Suarez all made six starts to Suarez’s five. Of the pitchers with six starts, Houck posted a fantastic month, with excellent three true outcomes.

Ryan Helsley of the Cardinals collected ten saves with miniscule offense allowed. He did take two losses, however.

I like Suarez, however, for his ability to go deep in games, and his ability to stop offense. Ranger Suarez wins the Baseball Musings Pitcher of the Month Award for April 2024.

A Phillies sweep!